Tag Archives: movie prediction

Movie Prediction Madness: June 30th-July 4th

I’m writing this one a bit early since the latest crappy Twilight movie comes out on a Wednesday.

You can’t swing a dead cat without hitting someone who loves those films, or go 10 minutes without getting into a conversation about it, so I’m going to go ahead and predict a 5-day (Wednesday-Sunday) haul of $175 million for “Twilight: Eclipse”. Last fall the first crappy sequel stunned the world by making nearly $150 in a single weekend, and this one’s actually supposed to be “decent” so who knows? Hell, it could push $200 million for the 5 day period – expect records to be broken.

Speaking of broken, let’s move onto M. Night Shyamalan’s career. Here’s a guy who made 3 good movies in 3 years, then drank too much of his own Kool-Aid and starting churning out the turds such as the “The Village” – a film where I was actually upset that I’d watched it and wanted 2 hours of my life back. (Similar to seeing a sneak preview of this year’s boring “Robin Hood”, then realizing I’d missed “Lost”) Even in fail-up Hollywood you only get a certain number of strikes before you’re out (just ask Renny Harlin) so Shyamalan went with a cash-in “sure bet” – “Avatar: The Last Airbender”.

The only hope for this movie is counter-programming: Mom takes daughter to “Twilight”, son goes to see “Airbender”. In that best-case (but unlikely) scenario it could scare up $35-$40 million. Unlikely though – if you see a mom out doing something with a kid it’s always the daughter and a boy wouldn’t be caught dead near a “Twilight”-infused multiplex. So more likely it bombs and barely scraps past $20 million. But Shyamalan’s got his next movie lined up so his career will limp on. Sigh.

Toy Story 3 will continue to do well, say $30-$35 million for 2nd place. It will almost certainly become Pixar’s biggest hit ever, but probably won’t beat “Shrek 2”.

Rounding out the rest will be Adam Sandler’s latest “boy-man” comedy and “The Karate Kid”.

The big geek movie “Inception” is coming soon. No way in hell it does “Batman” numbers but it is the only remaining film of the summer I have any interest in.

Movie Prediction Madness – June 4th-6th 2010

It’s time for Movie Prediction Madness, a new column in which I fill up my under-utilized blog with predictions on the coming weekend’s top new movies! Let’s go!

#1 Maraduke

Who cares if they reviews say this is going to be crap on a stick? People love dogs, and people love Owen Wilson when associated with dogs (“Marley & Me”) plus moviegoers don’t read reviews anyway (sorry reviewers but it’s the only way to explain Transformer 2’s $400 mil haul). “Maraduke” also has the “mental real estate” of being an unfunny comic (yes I know that’s redundant) in every Sunday paper since the Nixon administration, so people know of it.

Thus “Maraduke” will win the weekend, barely beating out “Shrek 4: DVD Babysitter” for the top spot. Normally I wouldn’t expect a movie like this to make money, but those damn “Chipmunks” movies have been raking in the bucks so why not?

#2 Killers

Keep in mind, #2 of the new releases. “Killers” won’t top “Shrek” for the weekend but will probably squeeze out $20 million or so before limping off to Red Box oblivion. While the premise of “girl meets guy meets guns” won’t work here, I could see Tom Cruise pulling it off later this month with “Knight and Day” because – say what you will about him – he picks good scripts and will give it the right amount of crazy (versus Ashton Kutcher smug) to make it work.

#3 Splice

This movie actually looks kind of interesting but since it’s not a “reboot” of a tired old franchise might only make $15-$20 mil despite the heavy advertising. If it actually connects with audiences I could see it picking up a little steam and sticking around, “Date Night” style (the movie that just won’t die!)

Old Releases

“Iron Man 2: The Actionless Sequel” will continue its trajectory to make less than the original, which is appropriate since it’s less good. “Shoe Shopping Adventure 2” will continue its slide into underperformace, but probably still eek out “Prince of Persia’s” second weekend since I highly doubt undersexed 40-somethings will have any interest in Killers.